The escalating war between the US and Israel against Iran has raised critical questions about the endgame of this conflict. As the dust settles on the first two weeks of this war, it's evident that the Trump administration's strategy is shrouded in ambiguity and shifting positions.
The US-led attacks have been relentless, targeting key Iranian figures, military assets, and critical infrastructure. Yet, despite the devastation, the ultimate goal of this war remains elusive.
Regime Change: A Misguided Bet?
One of the apparent objectives of the US is to bring about regime change in Iran. The assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was a bold move, but it seems to have been a miscalculation. Experts argue that the Iranian establishment has shown remarkable resilience, and the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leader is a clear sign of this.
"I believe it was a miscalculation on Trump's part," Mustafa Hyder Sayed, executive director of the Pakistan-China Institute, told Al Jazeera. "Iran has proven its ability to withstand and fight prolonged conflicts."
A Deal with the IRGC: Unlikely and Impractical
Trump's calls for members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) to surrender and for Iranian diplomats to switch sides seem unrealistic. The IRGC has been at the forefront of Iran's counteroffensive, and Iranian diplomats have publicly rejected Trump's offers.
Muhanad Seloom, assistant professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, highlights the impracticality of this approach: "Trump has designated them a terrorist organization. Neither side has the political space for that conversation while the bombing continues."
Decimating Military Capabilities: A Partial Solution
Trump and his team have emphasized the need to eliminate Iran's military capabilities, including its ballistic missiles and naval assets. While US and Israeli strikes have targeted these assets, Seloom argues that military power alone cannot achieve Washington's desired political outcome.
"The military instrument has its limits. The US can destroy hardware, but it cannot create a political alternative from the air," Seloom explains.
Kurdish Invasion: A Complex and Risky Proposition
The Trump administration has reportedly considered using Kurdish forces to attack the Iranian military, but analysts warn of the complexities and potential regional tensions this could trigger.
"Iranian Kurdish armed groups lack the capability and unity for an invasion-like operation," Seloom adds. "It could create a second crisis for the US, which is already managing the first."
Ground Invasion: An Unlikely Scenario
While Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has stated that Iran is prepared for a ground invasion, such a move is considered highly unlikely by experts. Trump's anti-war campaign and the failures in Iraq and Afghanistan make a ground invasion politically challenging.
Kamran Bokhari, senior director at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy, states, "Ground troops are the least likely option given the president's political imperatives and the shadow of past failures."
Israel's Objectives: Reshaping the Region
Israel views Iran as its primary enemy and sees this war as an opportunity to reshape the Middle East. Mahjoob Zweiri, director of the Gulf Studies Center at Qatar University, explains, "Israel wants to eliminate and marginalize potential challengers, including Iran."
A Realistic Endgame for the US
Andreas Krieg, associate professor at King's College London, suggests that a coercive settlement is the most practical option for the US. He believes Washington could seek an understanding with elements of the Iranian regime, including IRGC-linked actors, to protect the state while making concessions on missiles, nuclear restrictions, and regional behavior.
"Trump is pragmatic. He may redefine victory, declare a deal, and conclude the war," Sayed adds. "A ground invasion would be a political setback and could cost him the midterms."
As the war continues, the world watches with bated breath, wondering what the true endgame is and how this conflict will shape the future of the region.
